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ON THE CUSP:
Metro
Ethernet Poised to Take Off
The Pieces are in Place: Market Drivers and
Trends
After many years of big talk and
tantalizing potential, Metro Ethernet is ready
to roll. Five years ago, when we published our
Gig-E/MAN Report™, some in the industry
thought that the marriage of fiber-based MAN
resources with Gigabit Ethernet was a
convenient, inexpensive way to expand metro
access bandwidth, but it remained a specialized,
niche service. In retrospect, that report was a
little ahead of its time. Significant progress
has been made, and today the stage is set for
Ethernet to become a ubiquitous transport
technology—and perhaps eventually to dominate
the WAN as it has the LAN. Carrier-grade service
and equipment standards are in place, and now
the common belief is that Metro Ethernet can
handle some mission-critical applications, is
ready for more widespread deployment, and is
showing signs that its growth in market share is
sustainable.
Based on extensive research of
the sector, NPRG’s Metro Ethernet Report™
shows that the pieces are now in place for a
"golden age" of Metro Ethernet to begin.
Market Drivers
What’s driving interest in Metro Ethernet
and optimism for its future?
For starters, the industry has
learned from its past and set about defining
fundamental standards. The creation of the Metro
Ethernet Forum (MEF), a clearinghouse for this
standards work, proved seminal, enabling both
vendors and service providers to speak the same
language. One result was a common definition for
"E-Line" (point-to-point) and "E-LAN"
(multipoint) services, which standardized the
mish-mash of terminology and interpretations
that varied from provider to provider. Some
providers have dropped or tweaked their own
product branding to more closely parallel MEF
categorization. In 2006, the MEF began a
certification program for equipment and
services, giving Metro Ethernet additional
transparency.1
U.S. Service Providers With
One or More Services Certified By MEF
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AT&T |
BellSouth (now
AT&T) |
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Met-Net
Communications |
Optimum
Lightpath |
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Qwest |
RCN |
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Time Warner
Cable |
Verizon |
Source: Metro Ethernet Forum
At the same
time, the boom in data traffic has been a boon
for Metro Ethernet, due to its IP compatibility
and its better scalability compared to legacy
services. End-users caught between NxT1 (Nx1.5
Mbps) and T3 (45 Mbps) service options, for
instance, are embracing the fact that they can
get 10 Mbps of Ethernet (or multiples thereof),
then quickly and easily add 10 Mbps increments
as their capacity needs grow. The same holds for
large enterprise and municipal customers on a
100 Mbps or 1 Gbps scale.
Behind it
all, Ethernet’s ubiquity makes it the
de
facto standard for today’s enterprise IT
departments. Because 10/100 Base-T interfaces
are standard on most computers manufactured
today, and almost all LANs utilize Ethernet,
buyers have a comfort level with Ethernet that
they typically do not with SONET, for example.
Pursuing Metro Ethernet for their WAN
architecture is a natural step for many.
Metro Ethernet Trends
Metro Ethernet has become the Internet
access technology of choice for end-users who
need bandwidth that is both plentiful and
inexpensive. Looking forward, however, we see
Metro Ethernet making significant progress and
eventually becoming the leading WAN
technology. Already, some providers have
announced plans to drop frame relay and ATM from
their product lines, while others have
structured contracts so that they can persuade
customers to switch over the next few years.
In 2006,
carriers finally rolled out copper-based
technologies for provisioning mid-band Ethernet
(less than 10 Mbps) on a large scale, greatly
expanding availability of Ethernet in the metro
and increasing its appeal as an end-to-end WAN
solution.
Competition
is also intense in the Metro Ethernet space.
Metro Ethernet offerings are no longer limited
just to niche players, fiber overbuilders
"productizing" lit services, or a few
competitive carriers ( i.e.,
"CLECs") dabbling with it as a
differentiator. Metro Ethernet is coming from
every sort of service provider: pure-play
Ethernet providers and other competitive
carriers, cable MSOs, independent incumbents,
not to mention the RBOCs and global carriers.
The very fact that end-users have multiple
options for Metro Ethernet is helping to
mainstream the technology and erode the
perception that it is still in proof-of-concept
stage.
Another
milestone looms on the horizon for 2007: the
anticipated national rollout of VPLS by the
RBOCs. Rather than spelling doom for
long-standing Metro Ethernet providers, the
industry as a whole expects the RBOCs’
nationwide VPLS products to enhance Ethernet’s
reputation as a metro access solution.
Competitive Ethernet providers see nationwide
availability from the biggest carriers as the
highest imprimatur for Metro
Ethernet,
generating greater awareness, increased customer
interest, and ultimately more sales and
deployments throughout 2007-08 and beyond.
Of course, this is just a
glimpse at the Metro Ethernet picture. Our
recently published
Metro Ethernet Report™ provides a
comprehensive examination of this exciting
sector, including a thorough look into the
cutting-edge service providers, market drivers
and future outlook.
1
According to the Metro Ethernet Forum, this is
the first time that telecom service providers
have been certified for any type of service
delivery.
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