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March 30, 2007

 

ON THE CUSP:

Metro Ethernet Poised to Take Off

 

The Pieces are in Place: Market Drivers and Trends

After many years of big talk and tantalizing potential, Metro Ethernet is ready to roll. Five years ago, when we published our Gig-E/MAN Report™, some in the industry thought that the marriage of fiber-based MAN resources with Gigabit Ethernet was a convenient, inexpensive way to expand metro access bandwidth, but it remained a specialized, niche service. In retrospect, that report was a little ahead of its time. Significant progress has been made, and today the stage is set for Ethernet to become a ubiquitous transport technology—and perhaps eventually to dominate the WAN as it has the LAN. Carrier-grade service and equipment standards are in place, and now the common belief is that Metro Ethernet can handle some mission-critical applications, is ready for more widespread deployment, and is showing signs that its growth in market share is sustainable.

Based on extensive research of the sector, NPRG’s Metro Ethernet Report™ shows that the pieces are now in place for a "golden age" of Metro Ethernet to begin.

Market Drivers

What’s driving interest in Metro Ethernet and optimism for its future?

For starters, the industry has learned from its past and set about defining fundamental standards. The creation of the Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF), a clearinghouse for this standards work, proved seminal, enabling both vendors and service providers to speak the same language. One result was a common definition for "E-Line" (point-to-point) and "E-LAN" (multipoint) services, which standardized the mish-mash of terminology and interpretations that varied from provider to provider. Some providers have dropped or tweaked their own product branding to more closely parallel MEF categorization. In 2006, the MEF began a certification program for equipment and services, giving Metro Ethernet additional transparency.1

U.S. Service Providers With One or More Services Certified By MEF

AT&T

BellSouth (now AT&T)

Met-Net Communications

Optimum Lightpath

Qwest

RCN

Time Warner Cable

Verizon

Source: Metro Ethernet Forum

At the same time, the boom in data traffic has been a boon for Metro Ethernet, due to its IP compatibility and its better scalability compared to legacy services. End-users caught between NxT1 (Nx1.5 Mbps) and T3 (45 Mbps) service options, for instance, are embracing the fact that they can get 10 Mbps of Ethernet (or multiples thereof), then quickly and easily add 10 Mbps increments as their capacity needs grow. The same holds for large enterprise and municipal customers on a 100 Mbps or 1 Gbps scale.

Behind it all, Ethernet’s ubiquity makes it the de facto standard for today’s enterprise IT departments. Because 10/100 Base-T interfaces are standard on most computers manufactured today, and almost all LANs utilize Ethernet, buyers have a comfort level with Ethernet that they typically do not with SONET, for example. Pursuing Metro Ethernet for their WAN architecture is a natural step for many.

Metro Ethernet Trends

Metro Ethernet has become the Internet access technology of choice for end-users who need bandwidth that is both plentiful and inexpensive. Looking forward, however, we see Metro Ethernet making significant progress and eventually becoming the leading WAN technology. Already, some providers have announced plans to drop frame relay and ATM from their product lines, while others have structured contracts so that they can persuade customers to switch over the next few years.

In 2006, carriers finally rolled out copper-based technologies for provisioning mid-band Ethernet (less than 10 Mbps) on a large scale, greatly expanding availability of Ethernet in the metro and increasing its appeal as an end-to-end WAN solution.

Competition is also intense in the Metro Ethernet space. Metro Ethernet offerings are no longer limited just to niche players, fiber overbuilders "productizing" lit services, or a few competitive carriers (i.e., "CLECs") dabbling with it as a differentiator. Metro Ethernet is coming from every sort of service provider: pure-play Ethernet providers and other competitive carriers, cable MSOs, independent incumbents, not to mention the RBOCs and global carriers. The very fact that end-users have multiple options for Metro Ethernet is helping to mainstream the technology and erode the perception that it is still in proof-of-concept stage.

Another milestone looms on the horizon for 2007: the anticipated national rollout of VPLS by the RBOCs. Rather than spelling doom for long-standing Metro Ethernet providers, the industry as a whole expects the RBOCs’ nationwide VPLS products to enhance Ethernet’s reputation as a metro access solution. Competitive Ethernet providers see nationwide availability from the biggest carriers as the highest imprimatur for Metro

Ethernet, generating greater awareness, increased customer interest, and ultimately more sales and deployments throughout 2007-08 and beyond.

Of course, this is just a glimpse at the Metro Ethernet picture. Our recently published Metro Ethernet Report™ provides a comprehensive examination of this exciting sector, including a thorough look into the cutting-edge service providers, market drivers and future outlook.

1 According to the Metro Ethernet Forum, this is the first time that telecom service providers have been certified for any type of service delivery.